There was guarded optimism among military experts in India as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump outlined plans to ramp up sales of defense systems to New Delhi, including F-35 stealth fighter jets, to deepen the U.S.-India strategic relationship.
“Defense sector is a big money, and India happens to be one of the top buyers in the world,” said Lt. Gen. Vinod Bhatia, India’s director-general for military operations from 2012 to 2014. “As long as we buy, Trump will be happy but it’s surely going to expand our conventional deterrence.”
The meeting signaled that “defense diplomacy is the core of diplomacy these days,” Bhatia said.
In a joint statement at the White House, the two leaders announced plans to sign a new 10-year framework later this year for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership.
Modi and Trump “pledged to elevate military cooperation across all domains — air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace — through enhanced training, exercises, and operations, incorporating the latest technologies,” the statement said.
The leaders also “committed to break new ground to support and sustain the overseas deployments of the U.S. and Indian militaries in the Indo-Pacific, including enhanced logistics and intelligence sharing,” the statement said.
While Indian military experts have long sought to diversify national defense procurements, analysts say it will take years to reduce New Delhi’s dependency on Russian arms, even with expanded defense cooperation with the U.S.
Raja Mohan, an analyst at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, said expansion in defense cooperation would take time.
“What India wants is coproduction and more research and development in India. It’s a long-term project,” he said.
It is difficult for India to remain dependent on Russia for defense equipment owing to difficulties obtaining parts and upgrades. However, a deal with the U.S. for F-35 stealth fighter jets will not fill India’s immediate need for more than 100 aircraft, said Rahul Bedi, an independent defense analyst based in India.
“They are not going to come tomorrow,” Bedi said. “It’s going to take several years to start arriving,” he added.
As its geostrategic competition with China has grown manifold in recent years, India has diversified defense acquisitions from the U.S., Israel and France while seeking to move toward self-reliance in this sector. But New Delhi is still far from getting over its dependence on supplies and spare parts from Russia that makes up to 60% of Indian defense equipment.
With vast borders and protracted border conflicts with neighboring countries Pakistan and China, India also relies hugely on Moscow for military upgrades and modernization.
“India faces threats from China and Pakistan, and a threat from collaborative Pakistan-China. We need technologically capable systems to counter these threats and one country that can give such systems is America,” said Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda, who from 2014 to 2016 headed the Indian military’s Northern Command.
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China’s rise as a global power also has pushed India closer to the U.S. and to the Quad, a new Indo-Pacific strategic alliance among the U.S., India, Australia and Japan.
The growing strategic alliance accuses China of economic coercion and military maneuvering in the region, upsetting the status quo, and has ruffled feathers in Beijing, which sees the relationship as a counterweight against China’s rise.
Indian fears of Chinese territorial expansion are bolstered by the growing presence of the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean and Beijing’s efforts to strengthen ties with not only Pakistan but also Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
“The major threat is from China which is outstripping India’s capability,” Hooda said.
In the early 1990s, about 70% of Indian army weapons, 80% of its air force systems and 85% of its navy platforms were of Soviet origin. From 2016 to 2020, Russia accounted for nearly 49% of India’s defense imports while French and Israeli shares were 18% and 13%, respectively, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Major Indian purchases from the U.S. included long-range maritime patrol aircraft, C-130 transport aircraft, missiles and drones.
The defense sales also can potentially offset the trade deficit between the two countries, Hooda said.
“It’s a win-win for all. America will get more business, and we’ll get modern weapons,” Hooda said. “It will also help to ease pressure on the tariff issue and trade deficit.”